Trade/Thailand export outlook

Editorial staff

Thailand's exports in June 2024 had a value of 24.79 billion US$ (892.766 billion baht), a slight drop of about 0.3 %. Thai exports of real sector (excluding gold, oil-related products, and weaponry) contracted by 1.6 %.

Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), said Thai exports slightly contracted mainly because fruit products were entering the final stages of the season, resulting in reduced market supply. Thailand's trade balance continued to show a surplus for the second month.

Poonpong Naiyanapakorn

Meanwhile, the global trade atmosphere began to be concerned about the potential use of trade barriers and the uncertainty of elections in several countries. Additionally, issues related to technological changes, such as the shift to electric vehicles, have significantly reduced the demand for internal combustion engines.

Thai exports in June 2024 decreased by 0.3 % to 24,796.6 million USD while imports increased by 0.3 % to 24,578.5 million USD, resulting in a trade surplus of 218.0 million USD.

Thai exports expansion in 1H

The first half of 2024, Thai exports expanded by 2.0 % while exports of real sector (excluding gold, oil-related products, and weaponry) expanded by 3.1 %.

For the first half of 2024, Thai exports increased by 2.0 % to 145.29 billion US$ while imports increased by 3.0 % to 150.53 billion US$, resulting in a trade deficit of 5,242.7 million USD.

Export products

Thai exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products decreased by 3.3 % (YoY). The agricultural products decreased by 2.2 %, while the agro-industrial products decreased by 4.8 %.

Industrial product exports increased by 0.3 % (YoY), continuing growth for three

Export markets

• Exports to primary markets decreased by 1.3 %. Exports to China, Japan, and ASEAN (5) decreased by 12.3%, 12.3%, and 2.0%, respectively, while exports to the US and CLMV, and the EU (27) increased by 5.4%, 7.6%, and 7.9%.

• Exports to secondary markets increased by 2.5 % . Exports to South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America increased by 9.3%, 16.1%, 25.1%, and 30.5%, respectively, while exports to Australia and Oceania, Russia and CIS, and the UK decreased by 4.5%, 20.7%, and 20%.

• Exports to other markets decreased by 15 %.

Strategies and prospects

In June 2024, the Ministry of Commerce undertook significant activities to promote exports, including:

1. Discussions with the Japanese Ambassador to Thailand to expand trade opportunities: The Thai Ministry of Commerce requested Japan to increase the import list of golden bananas and reduce sugar tariffs. Additionally, they invited investors in the automotive, medical device, robotics, and clean energy industries to invest in Thailand and the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) area

2. Leading Thai rice entrepreneurs on a visit to China to build confidence: the Department of Foreign Trade brought the Thai Rice Exporters Association to visit Guangzhou to meet with importers and rice traders in China to exchange views on rice trade. They also organized promotional activities for Thai rice, showcasing its potential as a high-quality and globally standardized rice exporter. There are plans to use influencers and bloggers to promote Thai rice through popular channels among Chinese youth, such as TikTok and WeChat Channel.

Optimistic about export target

Regarding the export outlook of 2024, the Ministry of Commerce expects that Thailand's exports in 2024 will achieve the target growth. Positive factors include the export of agricultural and food products and the growth of the digital economy, which supports the demand for related goods.

However, there are risks such as drought conditions reducing agricultural output, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, civil wars in several countries, rising shipping costs in the second half of the year, the slow recovery of the economies of some trading partners, and uncertainties from elections in various countries, causing investors to delay investments while waiting for new government policies.