NESDC revised down 2023 Thai economic growth to 2.5-3%

Chatrudee Theparat

NESDC revised down 2023 Thai economic growth to 2.5-3%

The Think-Tank agency revised Thai economy in 2023 to expand in the range of 2.5 – 3.0 %, down from previous projection of 2.7-3.7% because continued export contraction, and a delay of fiscal budget 2024.

The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC),secretary general Danucha Pichayanan said the agency revised down the Thai economy to expand in the range of 2.5 – 3.0 %, down from previous projection of 2.7-3.7% as of May 15 based on a projection that a slowdown of export growth and global economic, tourism industry may not grow as expectation while a delay of fiscal budget 2024.

Export value of goods in US dollar term is anticipated to decrease by 1.8 %, compared with a 5.4 % in 2022, and a downward revision from a 1.6 %reduction in previous estimation.

The export volume in 2023 is expected to decrease by 1.8%, compared with a 1.1 % decline in the previous estimation.

Together with the downwardly revised assumptions on the revenues from inbound tourists, it is expected that the export quantity of goods and services will continue to increase by 5 %, downwardly revised from a 6.9 % in previous estimation, slowing down from a 6.8 % in 2022.

The agency estimated 1.03 trillion baht of tourism revenue from foreign visitors, down from 1.27 trillion baht of previous projection while maintained 28 million of arrivals.

Mr Danucha said the budget fiscal 2024 is expected to be implemented in April next year, a delay from a schedule of October 1, 2023 which caused a delay of investment disbursement.

Key supporting factors included the continual expansion in both private and public investments. Consumption and expenditure are expected to increase by 5 % and 1.6 %, respectively. Headline inflation is estimated to be in the range of 1.7 – 2.2 % and the current account is projected to record a surplus of 1.2 % of GDP.

The agency suggested the economic management for the remaining of year 2023 needs to prioritize on maintaining the favorable economic and political environment as well as ensuring the economic stability and cushioning the impact from uncertain global financial markets and economy; maintaining the growth momentum from public expenditure and investment.

Catalyzing the recovery in tourism and related service sector; supporting agricultural production and farmers’ income, fostering export growth, stimulating private investment.