Macroeconomics/exports in October

Chatrudee Theparat

Thailand’s exports fell 4.4% in October

Thailand's exports deceased by 4.4% in October because contractions of exports of agriculture products, agro-industrial products, and industrial manufacturing due to global demand slows.

Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit

Commerce Minister Jurin Laksanawisit said Thai exports, a main driver of Thai economic growth, dropped by 4.4% in October (amounted to US$ 21.77 billion:801.27 billion baht) from a year earlier or due to contractions of export of farm products, agro-industrial products and industrial manufacturing sector, came after September's 7.8% increase due to global demand slows caused by tight monetary policy to curb inflation in major trading partners affected economic activity and purchasing power.

In October, exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products declined for the first time in 23 months, down 3.4% from a year earlier. Industrial goods exports dropped 3.5%, the ministry said in a statement.

Products that continually expanded were rice (+2.8%), fresh, chilled, frozen, and processed chicken (+38.0%), cassava products (+26.3%), canned and processed seafood (+0.9%), pet food (+4.8%), drinks (+20.3%), frozen durian (+23.4%), ice-cream (+13.5%), and orchid (+10.9%). On the contrary, exports of some products decreased, namely, rubber (-28.5%), fresh and dried fruits (-34.9%), and canned and processed fruits (-11.3%).

Industrial product exports declined for the first time in 20 months with the rate of - 3. 5 % ( YoY) .

Products that greatly expanded were automobiles, equipment, and parts (+5.1%), gems and jewelry (excluding gold) (+5.4%), fax machines, telephones, equipment, and parts (+90.6%), air conditioners and components (+8.5%), semiconductors, transistors and diodes (+74.9%), and motorcycles and components (+14.9%).

Meanwhile, exports of some products declined, such as oil-related products (-22.8%), computer and equipment (-27.4%), and Iron, steel, and products (-13.1%). For the first ten months of 2022, the exports of industrial products expanded by 7.8 percent.

However, for the first 10 months, exports expanded by 9.1% to US$243.14 billion.

He said agriculture, agricultural product and industrial sectors all had good expansion during the past 10 months before the decline in October.
For the first ten months of 2022, the exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products expanded by 12.0 percent.

Exports to primary markets decreased by 4.5 percent. Exports to the US, China, Japan, ASEAN (5), and EU (27), decreased by 0.9%, 8.5%, 3.1%, 13.1% and 9.8% respectively, while exports to CLMV expanded by 10.6%.

Exports to secondary markets decreased by 5.7 percent. Exports to South Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Russia and CIS declined by 21.8%, 22.5%, 5.0%, and 62.9% respectively, while exports to Australia and Middle East grew by 18.8% and 22.4%.

Export to other markets increased by 51.7% as exports to Switzerland expanded by 103.5%.
Imports also decreased by 2.1% in October from a year earlier, compared with a forecast 10% rise.

Thailand recorded a trade deficit of $596 million in October.
In the January-October period, exports increased 9.1% from a year earlier while imports rose 18.3% and there was a trade deficit of $15.6 billion in the period.

Mr Jurin warned of possible difficult time of export sector with many negative factors amid fears of global recession in 2023.

“Exports are likely to slow down later this year, the full-year growth should still nearly double the ministry's 4% growth target. The ministry still maintained a projection to expand by 8% in 2022, double the initial projections of the ministry.”