Macroeconomics/GDP in 2023 is projected at 3.5%

Chatrudee Theparat

Thai economy in 2023 is projected to grow by 3.5 %

Think tank projected the Thai economy in 2023 to expand by 3.5% with mainly contribution from tourism and private consumption

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary general to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC)

Danucha Pichayanan, secretary general to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) said the Thai economy in 2023 is expected to expand within the range of 3-4 % or mean value at 3.5%.

He said the economic growth in 2023 may grow by 4% based on an assumption of mainly supported by the recovery of tourism sector, especially when Chinese government lifts restrictions on Covid-19, the expansion of both private and public investments, the continual expansion of domestic demand, and the favorable growth of agricultural sector.

It is expected that private consumption expenditure, private investment, and public investment will increase by 3.0 %, 2.6 %, and 2.4 %, respectively.

He said key growth components include private consumption expenditure which is expected to increase by 3 % in 2023, compared with a 5.4 % growth in 2022.
Government consumption expenditure is projected to drop by 0.1 %, compared with a 0.2 % contraction in 2022.

This is in line with the assumption of current budget disbursement rate under 2023 which is 2.48 trillion baht, decreasing by 1.8 % from 2.5 trillion baht in 2022, and declines in the disbursement under the 1 trillion baht and 500 billion bath loan decrees.

Total investment is expected to grow by 2.5 %, compared with 2.6 % in 2022. Private investment is estimated to increase by 2.6 %, slowing from
a 3.9 % growth in 2022 because the slowdown in world economy and export sector.

Public investment is expected to grow by 2.4 %, recovering from a 0.7 % decline in the previous year owing to an increase in capital budget under 2023 which is 695.08 billion baht, increasing by 13.5 % from a budget of 612.57 billion baht in 2022.
Moreover, there is also support from the progress in key infrastructure projects understate-owned enterprises’ investment budget.

Export growth is projected to grow by 1 %, compared with a 7.5 % growth in 2022. The export volume is forecasted to grow by 1%, decelerating from a growth of 3.2 % in the previous year, owing to the slowdown of the global economy and merchandized trade.

Revenues from amount 23.5 foreign tourists in 2023 is projected to be 1.2 trillion baht, compared with 570 billion baht in 2022 of 12 million foreign arrivals.

In 2023, the export quantity of goods and services is estimated to increase by 8.5 %, compared with 8.2 % in 2022.

Economic management for the year 2023 needs to prioritize on closely monitoring and resolving retail debts amidst the rising interest rate tendency, of both households and small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

Supporting agricultural production and farmers’ income, by rehabilitating the flood damaged areas and preparing supporting policy for agricultural products during the cultivation season 2023/24.

Maintaining momentum from export sector, by boosting exports to major markets coupled with expanding to new markets; monitoring the global economic and trade condition, in order to utilize benefits from economic and trade policies in major economies; utilizing benefits from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), along with expediting the ongoing FTA; and encouraging the business sector to appropriately manage risk of exchange rate fluctuation.

Catalyzing the recovery in tourism and related service sector, by preparing and assisting the tourism sector to be ready for the resuming of foreign tourists; and promoting domestic tourism.

Stimulating private investment, by assisting the liquidity for the business amidst upward interest rate tendency and global economic slowdown; speeding up projects already approved and obtained investment promotion certificates in 2019-2022 to start their actual investments, especially those in the targeted industries; solving difficulties and obstacles hindering investors; stimulating investments in Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), and other special economic zones,

The agency projected the Thai economy in 2022 to expand by 3.2 %, accelerating from 1.5 % in 2021.