Macroeconomics/GDPQ3

Chatrudee Theparat

The Thai economy in Q3 expanded by 4.5%

Thai economy in the third quarter of 2022 expanded by 4.5 % because contributions of private consumption, investment, export and tourism.

National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), secretary general Danucha Pichayanan announced Thai economy in the third quarter grew by 4.5%, accelerating from 2.3 % and 2.5 % in the first and second quarters respectively.

National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), secretary general Danucha Pichayanan

After seasonal adjustment, the economy increased by 1.2 % from the second quarter (%QoQ sa) while in the first 9 months of 2022, the Thai economy grew by 3.1 %.

“The support factors are private consumption, public investment and tourism accelerated. Export of goods slowed down while government expenditure and investment decreased.”

Private consumption expanded by 9 % percent, accelerating from 3.5 % and 7.1 % in the first quarter, and second quarter, respectively. This was the highest growth in 39 quarters following the expansion in all categories.

Expenditure in services increased by 15.8 %, accelerating from a 14.1% growth in the previous quarter, following the strong growth of spending on hotels & restaurants and recreation & culture.

In the first nine months of 2022, private consumption expenditures expanded by 6.5 %. Government consumption expenditure registered a contraction of 0.6 %, compared with a 2.8 % growth in the previous quarter. This was the first negative growth in 10 quarters due to a decrease in purchases of goods and services, specifically in COVID-19 healthcare expenditure.

Total investment increased by 5.2 %, compared with a 1 % decrease in the previous quarter. This was mainly due to an expansion in private investment which showed a robust growth of 11 %, accelerating from 2.3 % in the previous quarter.

Nonetheless, public investment decreased for three consecutive quarters by 7.3 %, comparing with a 9 % contraction in the previous quarter.

The government investment decreased by 11.8 %; however, the investment of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) grew by 1.1 %. The disbursement rate of capital budget in this quarter was 21.2 % of the total budget framework, higher than a 19.2 % in the previous quarter but lower than 24 % in same quarter of last year.

In the first nine months of 2022, total investment grew by 1.6 %. Thus, private investment expanded by 5.3 %, while public investment decreased by 7%.

On foreign trade, export value in the third quarter was recorded at US$ 71.98 billion, demonstrating a 6.7 % growth slowing down from 9.7 % in the previous quarter.

Exports to the main markets continually expanded, while exports to China, Japan and Hong Kong fell. Excluding unwrought gold, export value expanded by 6.4 percent, and in baht terms, export value grew by 18.1 % in this quarter.

Import value in the third quarter was recorded at US$ 71.55 billion, increasing by 23.2 % accelerating from 22.4 % in the previous quarter. Import volume and price indices rose by 8 % and 14.1 %, respectively.

Consequently, trade balance recorded a surplus of US$ 0.4 billion (or 17.1 billion baht).

In the first nine months of 2022, export value stood at 219.791 billion US dollars, a 10.2 % expansion, while import value was recorded at US$ 204.91 billion, a 20.7 % growth. Consequently, trade balance recorded a surplus of US$14.9 billion (or 502.1 billion baht).

On the production side, manufacturing sector returned to expansion. On the contrary, construction sector and agricultural sector decreased.
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector decrease by 2.3 % due to the flood impacts in many agricultural areas and unfavorable weather condition.
Manufacturing sector expanded by 6.3 %, compared with a 0.5 % contraction in the previous quarter with an expansion in most of the manufacturing sector.