Pornchai Thiraveja/revised projection

Chatrudee Theparat

Finance Ministry revises slightly its 2022 economic growth projection to 3.4% from 3.5 previously.

Mr Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO)

Mr Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), said the finance ministry revised its economic growth forecast to 3.4% based on a recovery of private consumption and tourism sector after the government lifted restrictions on foreign arrivals.

The number of foreign visitors totaled 5.7 million in the first nine months of this year, an increase of about 6.57%. The ministry predicted to have 10.2 million foreign arrivals this year, up from 8 million expected previously when three months ago, thanks to baht depreciation.

Revenue improvement of those people working in the tourism industry and related business, and an income increase in farm sector helped spur private consumption of 7.4% in the first nine months of this year. The ministry projected private consumption would grow to 7.9% this year, based on a forecast range of 7.4-8.4%.

The ministry expects export, one of major key drivers of Thai economy, will rise 8.1%, based on a forecast range of 7.6-8.6%, up from 7.7% predicted previously. Private investment is expected to expand by 5.1%, with a projection ranging from 4.6 to 5.6%. Inflation is estimated at 6.2% a year, with a projection range of 5.7-6.7%, caused by rising energy price.

The ministry predicts improvement economic growth will grow 3.8% next year, with prediction range of 2.8-4.8%, thanks to a recovery of tourism industry, especially the rising number of foreign arrivals from Asia, Europe and the US.

The number of foreign tourists is projected at 21.5 million in 2023, an increase of 109% from 2022. Private consumption is predicted to expand by 3.2%, and 2.5% of export, a drop from 2022 due to declining demand in the global market and trade partners. Private investment is predicted to grow by 3.7% and 2.9% of inflation rate due to a drop in energy price.